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The industrial robot market is facing a mixed picture over the coming years, with 2024 set to end on a challenging note. Global robot shipments are projected to decline by 0.2%, following a flat performance in 2023. Compared with our May 2024 forecast, we have revised our 2024 projections for overall shipments downward by 5.8%; from over 553,000 units to 521,328 units. Additionally, the expected growth for 2025 has been reduced by 0.7 percentage points. These revisions reflect weaker-than-anticipated sales to the automotive industry in the second half of 2024 within the US and Europe, along with continued sluggish demand in China.

未來(lái)幾年，工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)將面臨喜憂參半的局面，2024 年將以充滿挑戰(zhàn)的方式結(jié)束。繼 2023 年表現(xiàn)平平之后，全球機(jī)器人出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將下降 0.2%。與 2024 年 5 月的預(yù)測(cè)相比，我們已將 2024 年的整體出貨量預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)了 5.8%;從超過(guò) 553,000 輛增加到 521,328 輛。此外，2025 年的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)率已下調(diào) 0.7 個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。這些修正反映了 2024 年下半年美國(guó)和歐洲汽車行業(yè)的銷售額弱于預(yù)期，以及中國(guó)需求持續(xù)低迷。

Despite these challenges, we expect a gradual recovery in 2025. This is driven by anticipated increases in machinery investments – as key economies lower interest rates – alongside a broader recovery in the global manufacturing sector. However, factors such as high inventory levels and weak order intake are likely to persist in many industry sectors. This could potentially dampen robot demand during the first half of 2025. We forecast that industrial robot shipments will return to growth rates of over 7% by 2026.

盡管存在這些挑戰(zhàn)，我們預(yù)計(jì) 2025 年將逐步復(fù)蘇。這是由于主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體降低利率，預(yù)期機(jī)械投資將增加，同時(shí)全球制造業(yè)將全面復(fù)蘇。然而，高庫(kù)存水平和疲軟的訂單量等因素可能會(huì)在許多行業(yè)領(lǐng)域持續(xù)存在。這可能會(huì)抑制 2025 年上半年的機(jī)器人需求。我們預(yù)測(cè)，到 2026 年，工業(yè)機(jī)器人出貨量將恢復(fù)到 7% 以上的增長(zhǎng)率。

預(yù)計(jì)到2025年，全球機(jī)器人出貨量將達(dá)到548,000臺(tái)

Market by Robot Type:
按機(jī)器人分類市場(chǎng)：

Collaborative robots (cobots) stand out as a key growth area. We expect to see a 15.9% increase in shipments in 2024, despite the global economic slowdown. However, as competition increases, the price decline for cobots has been the most pronounced, resulting in a slower projected revenue growth rate of 11% during 2024.

協(xié)作機(jī)器人 （cobots） 是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的增長(zhǎng)領(lǐng)域。盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，我們預(yù)計(jì) 2024 年的出貨量將增長(zhǎng) 15.9%。然而，隨著競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的加劇，協(xié)作機(jī)器人的價(jià)格下降最為明顯，導(dǎo)致 2024 年預(yù)計(jì)收入增長(zhǎng)率將放緩至 11%。

SCARA robots are expected to see modest growth of 1.8% in 2024, fuelled by demand recovering in Asia’s semiconductor and electronics sectors. In contrast, other robot types will experience declines in shipments of 1-3% over the year, primarily due to challenges within the automotive and broader industrial sectors.

在亞洲半導(dǎo)體和電子行業(yè)需求復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)下，預(yù)計(jì) SCARA 機(jī)器人將在 2024 年實(shí)現(xiàn) 1.8% 的溫和增長(zhǎng)。相比之下，其他機(jī)器人類型的出貨量將在一年內(nèi)下降 1-3%，這主要是由于汽車和更廣泛的工業(yè)部門(mén)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)。

Regional Market Dynamics:
區(qū)域市場(chǎng)動(dòng)態(tài)：

Americas:
美洲

Robot shipments in the Americas are projected to contract by 6.6% in 2024, primarily due to sluggish demand from the automotive industry. Shipments in the electronics and metal sectors are also experiencing declines. While demand for robots in consumer-related sectors is growing, it is not enough to offset the downturn in other industries. However, the life sciences sector has been a bright spot, with strong growth in demand for robots used in pharmaceutical production and medical device assembly in the US.
預(yù)計(jì)到 2024 年，美洲的機(jī)器人出貨量將收縮 6.6%，主要是由于汽車行業(yè)的需求低迷。電子和金屬行業(yè)的出貨量也在下降。雖然消費(fèi)相關(guān)行業(yè)對(duì)機(jī)器人的需求不斷增長(zhǎng)，但這不足以抵消其他行業(yè)的低迷。然而，生命科學(xué)領(lǐng)域一直是一個(gè)亮點(diǎn)，美國(guó)對(duì)用于制藥和醫(yī)療設(shè)備組裝的機(jī)器人的需求強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。

From 2024 to 2028, industrial robot shipments in the Americas are expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.1%. After the double-digit growth seen in 2021 and 2022, it is expected that the market will stabilize and expand at a more moderate pace in the coming years. We anticipate the continued trend towards greater automation and US reshoring initiatives will support the growth of manufacturing and demand for robots in the region.
從 2024 年到 2028 年，美洲的工業(yè)機(jī)器人出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將以 6.1% 的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng)。在 2021 年和 2022 年實(shí)現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)之后，預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)幾年市場(chǎng)將穩(wěn)定下來(lái)并以更溫和的速度擴(kuò)張。我們預(yù)計(jì)，自動(dòng)化程度的持續(xù)趨勢(shì)和美國(guó)的回流計(jì)劃將支持該地區(qū)制造業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)和對(duì)機(jī)器人的需求。

Asia Pacific:
亞太

In 2024, robot shipments in Asia Pacific are expected to increase by 2.3%, driven by a 3.3% increase in China and a 4.9% rise in the rest of APAC (excluding Japan and South Korea).
到 2024 年，亞太地區(qū)的機(jī)器人出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng) 2.3%，其中中國(guó)增長(zhǎng) 3.3%，亞太地區(qū)其他地區(qū)（不包括日本和韓國(guó)）增長(zhǎng) 4.9%。

• The Indian manufacturing industry continues to experience strong growth in 2024, spurred on by government investments in infrastructure. Industrial robots are rapidly gaining traction in India.
• The robot market in Taiwan and Southeast Asia is also seeing steady growth, fuelled by recovery of the semiconductor industry.
• China’s manufacturing sector is facing another challenging year in 2024. Due to overcapacity in the EV battery and solar panel industries, robot shipments in these sectors are expected to decrease by nearly 10%. Additionally, robot demand in the automotive and electronics sectors is expected to show only modest growth.
• 在政府對(duì)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的刺激下，印度制造業(yè)在 2024 年將繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。工業(yè)機(jī)器人在印度迅速受到關(guān)注。
• 在半導(dǎo)體行業(yè)復(fù)蘇的推動(dòng)下，臺(tái)灣和東南亞的機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)也正在穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)。
• 2024 年，中國(guó)制造業(yè)將面臨又一個(gè)充滿挑戰(zhàn)的一年。由于電動(dòng)汽車電池和太陽(yáng)能電池板行業(yè)的產(chǎn)能過(guò)剩，預(yù)計(jì)這些行業(yè)的機(jī)器人出貨量將下降近 10%。此外，預(yù)計(jì)汽車和電子行業(yè)的機(jī)器人需求將僅出現(xiàn)適度增長(zhǎng)。

From 2024 to 2028, robot shipments in Asia Pacific are projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%. Excluding China, South Korea and Japan, the region is expected to record a CAGR of 7.4%. Southeast Asian countries are emerging as key hubs for the electronics, semiconductor, and automotive industries, with international companies increasingly establishing factories there. This is expected to help drive robot demand.

從 2024 年到 2028 年，亞太地區(qū)的機(jī)器人出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將以 6.2% 的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率 （CAGR） 增長(zhǎng)。除中國(guó)、韓國(guó)和日本外，該地區(qū)的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到 7.4%。東南亞國(guó)家正在成為電子、半導(dǎo)體和汽車行業(yè)的主要中心，越來(lái)越多的國(guó)際公司在那里建廠。預(yù)計(jì)這將有助于推動(dòng)機(jī)器人需求。

Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA):
歐洲、中東和非洲

In 2024, robot shipments in EMEA are expected to decline by 9.2%. In Europe, orders sharply deteriorated in the second quarter, particularly in the automotive sector. Like North America, robot shipments in the European life sciences and food & beverage industries are expected to see smaller declines (2-3%), in contrast to the larger contractions anticipated in industries such as automotive, metal, and rubber & plastics. Although the new energy segment in Europe is comparatively small, it is also expected to experience a significant drop in robot shipments.

到 2024 年，歐洲、中東和非洲地區(qū)的機(jī)器人出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將下降 9.2%。在歐洲，第二季度訂單急劇惡化，尤其是汽車行業(yè)。像北美一樣，歐洲生命科學(xué)和食品飲料行業(yè)的機(jī)器人出貨量預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)較小的下降（2-3%），相比之下，汽車、金屬、橡膠和塑料等行業(yè)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)較大的收縮。盡管歐洲的新能源細(xì)分市場(chǎng)相對(duì)較小，但預(yù)計(jì)機(jī)器人出貨量也將大幅下降。

From 2024 to 2028, we expect robot shipments in the EMEA region to grow at a CAGR of 5.6%. Demand growth in Eastern Europe is expected to accelerate with the expansion of the automotive supply chain in the region. Specialist countries in the life sciences sector, such as Denmark and Switzerland, are also expected to see above-average growth. However, larger manufacturing hubs, like Germany, are anticipated to experience slower growth, due to the ongoing recession in the manufacturing sector and structural challenges that could hinder economic recovery.

從 2024 年到 2028 年，我們預(yù)計(jì)歐洲、中東和非洲地區(qū)的機(jī)器人出貨量將以 5.6% 的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率增長(zhǎng)。隨著該地區(qū)汽車供應(yīng)鏈的擴(kuò)張，預(yù)計(jì)東歐的需求增長(zhǎng)將加速。預(yù)計(jì)丹麥和瑞士等生命科學(xué)領(lǐng)域的專業(yè)國(guó)家也將出現(xiàn)高于平均水平的增長(zhǎng)。然而，由于制造業(yè)的持續(xù)衰退和可能阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)，預(yù)計(jì)德國(guó)等較大的制造業(yè)中心將出現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)放緩。

In conclusion, the industrial robot market is navigating through a period of instability, with regional and sector-specific challenges influencing overall growth. While 2024 is a year of contraction, the medium-term outlook is more positive, especially as economic recovery gains momentum and new opportunities arise for automation.

總之，工業(yè)機(jī)器人市場(chǎng)正在經(jīng)歷一段不穩(wěn)定時(shí)期，區(qū)域和特定行業(yè)的挑戰(zhàn)影響了整體增長(zhǎng)。雖然 2024 年是收縮之年，但中期前景更加樂(lè)觀，尤其是在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇勢(shì)頭增強(qiáng)和自動(dòng)化新機(jī)遇出現(xiàn)的情況下。